What
the Hell has happened?
By
Uri Avnery, 29.3.06 (*31.3.06)
THE
MOST
dramatic and the most boring election campaign in our history has mercifully
come to an end. Israel looks in the mirror and asks itself: What the hell has
happened?
On
the way to the ballot box, in the center of Tel-Aviv, I could not detect the
slightest sign that this was election day. Generally, elections in Israel are a
passionate affair. Posters everywhere, thousands of slogan-covered cars rushing
around ferrying voters to the ballot stations, a lot of noise.
This
time - nothing. An eerie silence. Less than two thirds of the registered
citizens did actually take the trouble to vote. Politicians of all stripes are
detested, democracy despised among the young, whole sectors estranged. Those
who decided not to vote, but at the last moment relented, voted for the
Pensioners' List, which jumped from nothing to an astonishing seven seats.
This
was a real protest vote. Even young people told themselves: Instead of throwing
our vote away, let's do them a favor. Old people, sick people (including the
terminally ill), handicapped people and the entire health and education systems
were the victims of the Thatcherite economic policies of Netanyahu, backed by
Sharon, which Shimon Peres (of all people) called "swinish".
That
vote was a curiosity. But what happened in the main arena?
AT
THE
beginning of the campaign I wrote that the whole of the political system was
moving to the left.
Many
thought that that was wishful thinking, sadly removed from reality. Now it has
actually happened.
The
main result of these elections is that the hold of the nationalistic-religious
bloc, which has dominated Israel for more than a generation, has been broken.
All those who announced that the Left is dead and that Israel is condemned to
right-wing rule for a long, long time have been proved wrong.
All
the right-wing parties together won 32(*) seats, the religious parties 18. With
5 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, the rightist-religious wing cannot block all
moves towards peace any more.
This
is a turning point. The dream of a Greater Israel, stretching from the
Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River, is dead.
Significantly,
the "National Union", the party that is completely identified with the
settlers, has won only 9 seats - more or less like last time. After all the
heart-rending drama of the destruction of the Gaza settlements, the settlers
remain as unpopular as ever. They have lost the decisive battle for public
opinion.
Netanyahu
declared that the elections were going to be a "national referendum"
on the withdrawal from the West Bank. Well. It was - and the public
overwhelmingly voted "Yes".
The
main victim is Netanyahu himself. The Likud has collapsed. For the first time
since its founding by Ariel Sharon in 1973, it has been subjected to the
humiliation of being the fifth (!) party in the Knesset.
The
heartfelt joy about this rout of the Right is tempered by a very dangerous
development: the rise of Avigdor Lieberman's "Israel our Home" party,
a mutation of the Right with openly fascist tendencies.
Lieberman,
an immigrant from the former Soviet Union and himself a settler, draws his main
strength from the "Russian" community, which is almost uniformly
extremely nationalistic. He calls for the expulsion of all Arabs (a fifth of
Israel's population), ostensibly in a swap of territories, but the message is
clear. There are also the usual hallmarks of such a party: the cult of the
Leader, a call for "law and order", intense hatred for "the
enemy" both within and without. This man got 11 seats and has overtaken
Netanyahu. His main slogan "Da Lieberman" ("Yes Lieberman"
in Russian) reminds one of similar historical salutes.
For
those who are interested: the fascist group that called for my murder as part
of their election program has failed to attain the 2% necessary to gain entry
into the Knesset. But, of course, an assassin does not need 2% to follow such a
call. (I would like to use this occasion to express my heartfelt thanks to all those
around the world who expressed their solidarity.)
THE
JOYFUL
scenes at the Labor Party's Headquarters may seem at first glance exaggerated.
After all, the party got only 20 seats, as against 19 last time (to which must
be added the three of the small party led by Amir Peretz at the time). But the
numbers do not tell the whole story.
First
of all, the political implications are far-reaching. In parliament, it is not
only the raw numbers which count, but also their location on the political map.
In the next Knesset, any coalition without the Labor Party has become
impractical, if not completely impossible. Amir Peretz is going to be the most
important person in the next cabinet, after Ehud Olmert.
But
there is more to it than that. Peretz, the first "oriental" Jewish
leader of any major Israeli party, has overcome the historic rejection of Labor
by the immigrants from Muslim countries and their offspring. He has destroyed
the established equation of Oriental = poor = Right as against Ashkenazi =
well-to-do = Left.
This
has not yet found its full expression in the voting. The increase in Oriental
voters for Labor has been only incremental. But no one who has seen how Peretz
was received in the open markets, until now fortresses of the Likud, can have
any doubt that something fundamental has changed.
And
most important, when Peretz arrived on the scene, hardly three months ago,
Labor was a walking corpse. Now it is alive, vibrant, hungry for action. It's
called leadership, and it's there. Peretz is on his way to being a viable
candidate for Prime Minister in the next elections. Until then, he certainly
will have a major impact both on social affairs and the peace process.
THAT
IS, of
course, the main question: Can the next government bring us closer to peace?
Kadima
has won the elections, but is not happy. When it was founded by Sharon, it
expected 45 seats. The sky was the limit. Now it has to be satisfied with a
measly 29 seats, enough to head the government but not enough to dictate
policy.
In
his victory speech, Olmert called on Mahmoud Abbas to make peace. But this is
an empty gesture. No Palestinian could possibly accept the terms Olmert has in
mind. So, if the Palestinians don't show that they are "partners",
Olmert wants to "establish Israel's permanent borders unilaterally",
meaning that he wants to annex something between 15% and 50% of the West Bank.
It
is doubtful whether Peretz can impose another policy. Possibly, the whole
question will be postponed, under the pretext that the social crisis has to be
addressed first. In the meantime, the fight against the Palestinians will go
on.
It
is up to the peace movement to change this. The elections show that Israeli
public opinion wants an end to the conflict, that it rejects the dreams of the
settlers and their allies, that it seeks a solution. We have contributed to
this change. Now it is our job to show that Olmert's unilateral peace is no
peace at all and will not lead to a solution.
On
our election day, the new Palestinian government was confirmed by its
Parliament. With this government we can and must negotiate. At the moment, the
majority in Israel is not yet ready for that.
But the election results show that we are on the way.
---------------------------------
(*31.3.06
- Two days ago, I wrote this article based on the temporary election results
available at the time. The final results have now been published, and I have
corrected the figures accordingly, without making any other changes.)